Timber Sycamore: A Covert Action Case Study

The Shadowy War in Syria

Whispers of US involvement with ISIS in Syria emerged in 2019, fueling existing rumors about a clandestine CIA operation known as Timber Sycamore. Shrouded in secrecy, the operation, which ran from 2012 to 2017, aimed to topple Bashar al-Assad's regime. While the truth was tangled, certain disturbing facts emerged: weapons did fall into ISIS hands, corruption thrived, and some US-backed groups held the very ideologies the US aimed to combat.

Timber Sycamore serves as a stark lesson in the perils of parallel operations, highlighting the complexities of intertwining CIA covert action (Title 50) with Special Operations Command activities (Title 10). While regime change eventually occurred years later, the operation was plagued by oversight failures, inadequate vetting, and a lack of accountability.

A History of Covert Collaboration

The CIA and Special Operations Forces (SOF) have a long history of collaboration, dating back to WWII and evolving through the Vietnam War. “Sheep dipping,” the practice of integrating SOF into CIA-led operations under Title 50 authority, became a common tactic. This method, notably used in the 2011 Bin Laden raid, was heavily employed in Timber Sycamore, with SOF and contractors working alongside the CIA in Jordan and Turkey.

The Arab Spring and the Seeds of Covert Action

Amidst the Arab Spring's upheaval, the US government contemplated covert action in Syria. President Obama, initially hesitant, finally authorized Timber Sycamore in 2012. The goal: regime change. This covert operation ran parallel to the overt military campaign against ISIS. However, as ISIS's threat grew, resources shifted, and Timber Sycamore's focus blurred.

The Allure and Risks of Covert Action

Covert action, with its inherent deniability, has long been a tool of foreign policy, despite its historically low success rate. Syria was no stranger to such interventions, with previous covert operations targeting the pro-Soviet government in the 1950s and regime change studies focusing on Hafez al-Assad in the 1980s. Timber Sycamore followed in these footsteps, prioritizing policy outcomes over Syrian interests or democracy.

From Diplomacy's Nadir to Covert Action's Dawn

As the Syrian civil war intensified, the US Embassy in Damascus closed, and ISIS expanded its grip. While tracking ISIS, the US debated a covert response to the weakened Syrian regime. President al-Assad's offer to abdicate was dismissed. Driven by Secretary Clinton and CIA Director Petraeus, President Obama finally greenlit Timber Sycamore after the 2013 Ghouta chemical attack.

The operation began: training, equipping, and supplying Syrian rebels. Weapons flowed from Eastern Europe through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey. However, competing Gulf Arab interests and Turkey's border policies created friction. Internal tensions between the CIA and SOCOM further complicated the already precarious situation.

Parallel Programs and Competing Interests

Three distinct US programs operated simultaneously in Syria: the CIA-SOCOM collaboration under Timber Sycamore, a State Department non-lethal aid program, and Operation Inherent Resolve targeting ISIS. The CIA maintained operational centers in Turkey and Jordan, coordinating training and equipping rebels along Syria's northern and southern fronts. A complex network of bases, camps, and support systems sprung up across the region.

Weapons procurement was convoluted. The US, using misleading end-user certificates, bought arms within the EU, shipped them through Saudi Arabia, and then distributed them through Jordan and Turkey. Training, conducted by a mix of CIA, contractors, and 5th Special Forces Group, was followed by cash payments and equipment distribution.

A Billion-Dollar Experiment Gone Wrong

Timber Sycamore’s funding was substantial, yet insufficient. Congress allocated $1 billion annually, supplemented by significant Saudi contributions. The parallel SOCOM-led Syria Train and Equip Program (STEP), however, proved exorbitantly expensive and yielded minimal results. Deemed a "journey of experimentation" by Major General Nagata, STEP ultimately collapsed under its own weight and inadequate oversight.

The Unraveling of Timber Sycamore

Despite the shift to a CIA-only approach after STEP's failure, Timber Sycamore continued to falter. Russia's 2015 intervention further hampered US efforts. Meanwhile, disturbing reports of detainee executions by US-trained rebels, the killing of US personnel by a Jordanian soldier using a Timber Sycamore weapon, and the widespread diversion of weapons to ISIS through corrupt networks chipped away at the operation's secrecy and ultimately led to its demise.

A Tale of Two Authorities and Oversight Failures

The blurred lines between Title 50 and Title 10 authorities complicated oversight. The distinction between intelligence activities and covert action – informing versus influencing – became less clear in the context of sheep dipping and other joint operations. Congressional oversight, a persistent challenge since the 1947 National Security Act, remained weak, as demonstrated by the unfulfilled requests for Timber Sycamore records and the ineffectual attempts to cut funding.

Vetting Failures and Runaway Weapons

Unlike conventional security cooperation programs, Timber Sycamore and similar Title 10 programs like Section 127e skirted Leahy vetting requirements for human rights assessments. This crucial oversight, coupled with inadequate force protection screening, facilitated the participation of individuals linked to extremist groups. The lack of accountability mechanisms for tracking weapons distribution further contributed to the flow of arms to adversaries like ISIS.

An Ironic Victory and a Dark Future

In a twist of irony, regime change finally came in 2024, but not at the hands of US-backed moderates. Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former al-Qaeda affiliate once shunned by Timber Sycamore, led the charge that ousted al-Assad. His rise, facilitated by networks cultivated under the program’s umbrella, highlighted the unintended consequences of the operation.

Syria's fate mirrored the "Dark World Scenario" predicted by a 2002 CIA assessment: Islamist revolutions sweeping away the old order. As the US confronts new challenges, the lessons of Timber Sycamore remain critical: poor oversight, inadequate vetting, and a lack of accountability can lead to devastating long-term consequences, undermining even the best-laid plans.